Fannie Mae Revises Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024 (2024)

FAQs

Fannie Mae Revises Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024? ›

Financial markets are now pricing in lower odds of aggressive fed funds rate cuts this year, leading to some upward drift in the mid-to-longer range of the interest rate curve, including mortgage rates. Thus, we forecast the 30-year mortgage rate to end 2024 at 6.4 percent, up from 5.9 percent in our previous forecast.

Some economists are revising their rate predictions, looking for them to be higher this year than previously thought. Fannie Mae was among them, this week saying it expected the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.4%, up from its 5.9% prediction earlier this year.

Mortgage giant Fannie Mae likewise raised its outlook, now expecting 30-year mortgage rates to be at 6.4 percent by the end of 2024, compared to an earlier forecast of 5.8 percent.

This reflects an upward revision in Fannie's analysis: Just last month, the mortgage giant expected rates would dip below 6% at the end of this year. All told, Fannie Mae predicts mortgage rates will average 6.6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

But while the Fed raised its benchmark rate fast in 2022–2023, it's expected to bring rates down at a much more gradual pace in 2024 and beyond. As a result, any mortgage rate improvements are also expected to be gradual.

Inflation is anticipated to keep falling in 2024 and may reach the BoE's 2% target earlier than expected. As inflation has declined faster than expected this year, the BoE could start cutting the base rate in 2024 and possibly fall to 4% by the end of next year, according to data from private bank Berenberg.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

Are mortgage rates negotiable? Yes, to some degree, mortgage interest rates are negotiable. Mortgage lenders have some flexibility when it comes to the rates they offer. However, in many cases getting a lower rate on your loan will come with a price, such as paying “points” to get a lower rate.

Will HELOC Rates Go Down in 2024? The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates several times in 2024, which could lead to a change in HELOCs' benchmark rates and cause their interest rates to go down as well. However, there's no guarantee that rates will go down—it depends, in part, on whether inflation drops.

What is Fannie Mae's rate prediction? ›

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025.

"By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower." Hold steady through 2024: Afifa Saburi, a capital markets analyst for Veterans United Home Loans, doesn't think rates are going to drop much this year.

You can choose to lock in your mortgage rate from the moment you select a mortgage, up to five days before closing. Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you.

Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years

ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.

For people looking to buy a home, a recession can bring some advantages. When the economy is not doing well, home prices often drop, which can be good news for those who want to find a good deal; plus, during recessions, mortgage rates usually stay low, meaning buyers can get a home with lower monthly payments.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently warned that interest rates on Treasury bills could remain well above 3 percent through 2030, after averaging only 1.5 percent in the last decade.

Buying a home this year, particularly in early 2024, might mean you're able to beat the rush, as the market could get more crowded if or when rates drop further. Waiting, however, could give you more options to choose from as supply improves, along with the potential for increased mortgage affordability.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. A "For Sale" outside a house in Hercules, California, on May 31, 2022.

Key takeaways. The national average rate for one-year CD rates will be at 1.15 percent APY by the end of 2024, McBride forecasts, while predicting top-yielding one-year CDs to pay a significantly higher rate of 4.25 percent APY at that time.